Sunday, 22 April 2012

Scottish Local Elections 2012: Dundee City


2007 Results 
13 SNP
10 Labour
3 Conservative
2 Lib Dems
1 Independent
(SNP minority administration)

16 SNP
14 Labour
10 Lib Dems
9 Conservative
7 Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition
5 Independents
1 Green Prediction
SNP 15-16
Labour 9-10
Conservative 2
Independents 1
Lib Dems 1

Dundee is Scotland's fourth largest city, situated on the north bank of the Firth of Tay, surrounded by Angus Council.

The council area is covered by the Dundee City East and Dundee City West constituencies at Holyrood, both of which are held by the SNP.  Dundee City East is held by Commonwealth Games and Sport Minister Shona Robison, with a majority over 10,000.  Dundee City West is held by Joe Fitzpatrick with a majority over 6,000.

15 seats are needed for a majority in Dundee City, so only the SNP have fielded enough candidates to win outright.  The Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition are standing in all but one ward as the "Scottish Anti-Cuts Coalition".

They have been governing the city as a minority administration since the last election but only need to gain two seats to form a majority on the council, making it one of the most likely councils to be won outright in May.

Strathmartine (4 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Ind / Lab / LibDem
Candidates Con / Ind(x2) / Lab(x2) / LibDem / SNP(x2) / TUSC

The SNP came top in this ward last time, but didn't poll quite well enough to get their second candidate elected.  Independent Ian Borthwick has a strong vote as well, enough to get elected on first preferences last time, with Labour polling over a quota between two candidates.  The split SNP and Labour votes allowed the Lib Dems to win the last seat, ahead of each party's second candidates.

This time around the independent councillor is defending his seat, which seems fairly secure.  The SNP and Labour should hold at least one seat each, however the Lib Dem seat is vulnerable to both the SNP and Labour's second candidates, with the SNP probably most likely to gain it.

Lochee (4 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Lab / SNP / Lab
Candidates Con / Ind / Lab(x2) / LibDem(x2) / SNP(x2) / TUSC
(2007 By-election SNP hold)

This seat is a two party battle with only Labour and the SNP polling significantly.  Given that, it is surprising that the Lib Dems have fielded two candidates here, when their lone candidate last time was nowhere close to winning even one quota of votes.  They've done this in another ward too, which seems to suggest a strategy of standing extra candidates in unwinnable seats for some rather odd reason.

There will be two easy SNP and Labour holds here.

West End (4 seats)
2007 Results LibDem / Lab / SNP / Con
Candidates Con / Grn / Lab / LibDem / SNP(x2) / TUSC

By far the strongest Lib Dem ward in the city, their candidate topped the poll last time, although the SNP had slightly more first preferences between their two candidates.

The SNP and Labour should hold their current seats.  The Lib Dem vote is likely to remain high enough to return their candidate, although with fewer transfers available afterwards the Conservatives may be the ones worst off.  The Conservatives won a seat despite being well below quota on first preferences last time, and that seat now looks likely to go to the SNP.

Coldside (4 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Lab / SNP / Lab
Candidates Con / Ind(x2) / Lab(x2) / LibDem / SNP(x2) / TUSC

Another ward split mostly between Labour and the SNP, Labour polled slightly ahead of the SNP last time.

There should be two SNP and two Labour holds here.

Maryfield (3 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Lab / SNP
Candidates Con / Lab(x2) / LibDem / SNP(x2) / TUSC
(2009 By-election SNP GAIN from Lab)

The SNP topped the poll here in 2007 winning two of the three seats, but went on to gain the third seat from Labour in a by-election giving them a full slate of incumbent councillors.  One of the incumbents is retiring though, so the SNP are fielding a more realistically winnable two candidates in the all-out election.

The result should be the same as 2007 with two SNP and one Labour candidates elected.

North East (3 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Lab / SNP
Candidates Con / Lab(x2) / LibDem(x2) / SNP(x2) / TUSC

This is the other ward where the Lib Dems are fielding two candidates, despite polling just 3.4% in the first preferences last time.  It's a strongly SNP ward anyway, with Labour in second place and the other parties all very far behind.

Again, this should return the same result as in 2007.

East End (3 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Lab / SNP
Candidates Con / Lab(x2) / LibDem / SNP(x2) / TUSC

Similar to the last ward, the SNP are strongest here followed by Labour, with the other parties polling little in comparison.

Again, two SNP and one Labour candidates should be returned again.

The Ferry (4 seats)
2007 Results SNP / Lab / Con / Con
Candidates Con(x2) / Lab / LibDem / SNP(x2)

The city's Conservative stronghold, their three candidates last time won just over two quotas of first preferences.  This time, they seem to be aiming to consolidate those seats, standing two instead of going for a gain.  The SNP polled well ahead of Labour last time, but Labour still won nearly a full quota of first preferences.

The two Conservative seats will be safe without a third candidate.  The SNP seat should be safe as well, with the final seat being competitive between Labour and the second SNP candidate.

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