Thursday, 2 October 2014

New Panelbase Voting Intention Polls

Panelbase have published the first full set of Scottish voting intention polls since the end of the independence referendum campaign.

They show a big lead for the SNP in the Holyrood campaign, and a more narrow lead for the party in Westminster voting intention.  Full figures below, including seat projections made using the Scotland Votes website here.

Holyrood


Party
Constituency
Vote Share
Regional
Vote Share
Projected
Seats
SNP
42%
37%
61 (-8)
Labour
27%
27%
35 (-2)
Conservative
15%
16%
19 (+4)
Green
-
9%
9 (+7)
Lib Dems
5%
5%
4 (-1)
Other
11%
6%
1 (-)

The projected other seat would be an Independent gain from Liberal Democrats in the Orkney Islands constituency.


Westminster
(Due to requirements of the software, 0.25% was added to the totals of each of the four parties winning seats when projecting seats.)

Party
Vote Share
Projected
Seats
SNP
34%
18 (+12)
Labour
32%
34 (-7)
Conservative
18%
3 (+2)
Lib Dems
5%
4 (-7)
UKIP
5%
-
Other
6%
-

The Westminster seats changing hands on these figures would be:

SNP gains from Labour
Aberdeen North
Ayrshire North and Arran
Dundee West
Edinburgh East
Falkirk
Livingston
Ochil and South Perthshire

SNP gains from Liberal Democrats
Argyll and Bute
Caithness and Sutherland
Edinburgh West
Gordon
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch and Strathspey

Conservative gains from Liberal Democrats
Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk

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